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What Are Your Odds of Winning the Championship?
Stat Boy workin overtime.
In less than three weeks, the next name will engraved on the BC&DC trophy. Twelve players will qualify for the playoffs. If the field was dead even, then each player would have a 1 in 12 chance of winning, or 8.33% chance.If the odds were tipped in favor of the standings, with last place having only a 1% chance of winning and giving up their 6 percentage points to first place, then the adjusted odds would look like this: First place: 14%, second: 13%, third 12%, etc. down to 1% for last place.
However, figuring in the win percentage based on games played and points won, would paint a different picture and attach faces to the odds. Kent Lorence has the most points, but Nelson Montgomery has the best average, however, might it be easier to maintain a higher average by playing less games played?
Then there is the war face that only comes out at playoff time. Is Bob Gannon the same competitor in a final game that he is on full moon night in July all hopped up on Yuengling beer? And what does Coach Butler know about being in a big game?Putting all of these factors into the stat boy computer has produced our first annual percentage odds maker at the 3/4 mark of the season:
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LORENCE
MTGMRY
GANNON
PRICE
AMOROSI
BUTLER
DORAN
STIFTER
CLEARY
BILLONI
RUPP
WEBBER
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15%
15%
14%
13%
12%
8%
7%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1%
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The good news for Kent & Monty is that, at 15%, he has the best odds of winning.
The bad news is, he only has a 1 in 7 chance of winning, or an 85% chance of NOT winning!! To win the final game of the season, being good isn’t good enough. Your going to have to have the croquet gods on your team.
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BCDC Playoff Trivia
Kent Lorence, although the top finisher in regular season play for as long as anyone can ever remember, has not won the playoffs in the last 4 years at least. What gives?
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Stifter Eligible for Playoffs
In a controversial move, Mark Stifter has been sponsored for league
membership by an anonymous source, entering him into the standings at 13th place, on
the cusp of replacing Josh Mergler in the 12th and final playoff position.
Unless Robin Mitchell or John Priore can pick up another 7 or 10 points in the
final two weeks, Stifter will qualify. Papers filed with the league office
revealed a complicated money trail, but the post mark from Illinois lead
investigators to Mike Slagor, now known as Dr. Menace. It is speculated that Slagor is
pulling the strings from his lair, in an effort to upset the status quo. Since
moving away from the area, Slagor has apparently reinvented himself as a mad
scientist, wearing Nehru jackets, shaved head and heavy rimmed glasses.
When reached for comment, Slagor replied: “Don’t call me Slagor, my name is
Dr. Menace, damn it!!!
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Rule Of The Week
Multiple "Events" within a single shot
Multiple Events” Within A Single Shot:
If two (or more) events occur on the same shot, the last
event takes precedence over what happened before it.
Examples:
1) A player hits two different opponents balls on the same shot, he has two shots but can only set off of the last ball he hit
2) A player hits an opponents ball and then travels through a wicket on the same shot, he has two shots from where his ball lays and can not set his ball off of the ball he hit before going through the wicket. However, he is clear to hit the same opponents ball again.
3) A player hits an opponents ball and then his own ball travels out of bounds, he places his ball in bounds from where it went out. His shot is over but he avoids losing his next turn.
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Review:
I saw "Sexy Beast" and it was scary good.
Ben Kingsley was scary. The females were scary.
The plot was scary good. The subtlety was horrific scary-like.
The guy who plays Al Swearington on "Deadwood" was scary
as the boss of the bad guys. The movie is over 2 years old. This
movie
had
no
real
cultural
significance, no moral message, lots of bad language, some
nudity, and not near enough graphic violence.
Enjoy.
-Johnny Fontaine
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Ask Mister Mallet:
From: Anonymous Newsletter Fan
Subject: Balls and Mallets
Dear Mr. M. (with all do respect....I feel we've become familiar enough that
I may address you in this manner),
It was the ultimate croquet sacrifice. However, I took your advice to heart and assisted my anonymous CS in this highly guarded secret recipe for success.
Much to my dismay, it appears we may have been a little too over zealous in our efforts. I am sorry to report anonymous CS has decided to take a sabbatical from croquette this week. Multiple spasms of moaning, hyperventilation and profuse sweating zapped all his energy (and he complained of splinters). I hope you will not hold this against me. If necessary (as long as it doesn't ruffle any fellow croquet stud's mallet feathers) I'd offer my assistance to step in in his place (or at the veryleast bring the booze). Please school me on the rules for this.
-Anonymous HOTG
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Reply To: Anonymous Newsletter Fan
From: Mr. Mallet
RE: Your Problem
Dear HottieG:
These symptoms you describe, if my feeble memory serves me well, remind me of the a little known malady called "mallet-in-mouth" disease, known to beset many an unsuspecting croquet fanatic.
The only known remedy is to have him gently insert his mallet into a warm and accepting place. Many of these places can be found in the Western New York area, especially in the general vicinity of the zoo.
I think it best that you don't stand in for him at the courts tonight, although the offer was generous. Just drop off the booze and make great haste to his ailing bedside.
-MrM
Send your important croquet questions here.
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